In a stark reversal from the collapse of nearly every market just six months ago, the winds of inflation have pushed the sails of those same markets back to new (or near) all-time highs. The rebound from Covid has been a V-shaped recovery, not an L-shaped, W-shaped, U-shaped, or some-other-letter shaped recovery. The move in asset prices should not be conflated with an underlying economic return to normalcy – far from it. The rebound is simply a commentary on price.
Let’s start with my favorite markets – precious metals: (more…)
The precious metals market is very clearly in a secular uptrend and prices look poised for further significant upside into the end of the year. My technical view is that in the short term prices have gotten a bit extended and that a pull back/consolidation is due (and healthy) to build the base for the next leg higher. (more…)
Precious metals prices broke out this morning above key resistance levels in the mining sector as well as the underlying futures market for the raw metal.
Silver has been a shining star in the metals complex since the March low of $11.60, outperforming all other metals on its run to $18.90/oz. The upside leadership was a welcome sign for precious metals bulls, as silver tends to be a bellwether for bullish appetite in the space.
It has been over a month since my last entry on the markets, and aside from a few Twitter posts, most of my analysis has been confined to my desktop. The impact of the coronavirus on the retail precious metals market has been historic, with dueling supply and demand shocks, and as president of Texas Precious Metals, my time has been consumed by day-to-day operations. I finally have a bit of a respite this afternoon to share a few thoughts on the metals markets.
The sell off in markets accelerated by coronavirus and the global reaction to curtail the pandemic has left no prisoners, as nearly all asset classes are selling off in a flight to liquidity. As large institutions face margin calls, they are forced to close positions or raise cash by selling anything and everything that is liquid. Gold and silver – the “safe haven” assets – are no exception. I would remind readers that in the global financial crisis gold fell 27% and silver fell 55% in nominal terms. Gold outperformed equities on a relative basis, but silver actually underperformed.
Fear or Greed?
The last two weeks have been extremely volatile in the markets, and for the first time in a long time my friends and family have called to inquire about “what is going on in the markets?” Coronavirus contagion fears, coinciding with all-time highs in the markets, has been the scapegoat for a rapid, deflationary decline across nearly all markets except bonds, which resiliently continued to fetch a bid. Even the US Dollar, traditionally a safe haven in deflationary swoons, declined.
Trend Remains Strong and Intact
Price action in gold has traded in a narrow window over the past few weeks, winding into a tight coil as it begins to consolidate for another leg higher. The wave counts suggests that gold is in the early stages of a Wave 5. In the chart above, the key near term level to watch to the downside is $1540. This level served as resistance in September 2019, and has been support for the last month. This level also roughly coincides with rising support from the uptrend channel that commenced in August 2018.
Gold Breaks Out; Silver Gearing Up for a Move
Gold bugs should be pleased with the monthly performance of gold in January. The definitive monthly break of the $1520 level, which had acted as strong monthly support six times between 2011-2013, before serving as resistance during this recent consolidation period between August and December, has sent a bullish longer term signal to the market.
Bullish Tailwinds in US Housing
In this video, I review key technicals in the US housing market, specifically the real estate ETF REZ, home construction ETF ITB, mortgage rates and lumber. I also explore some key demographic trends that could help fuel the rise in the US housing market.
As always, I hope this is helpful, and I welcome any feedback or questions.