Gold Price Resources

Gold and Silver Coiling for a Move

It has been over a month since my last entry on the markets, and aside from a few Twitter posts, most of my analysis has been confined to my desktop. The impact of the coronavirus on the retail precious metals market has been historic, with dueling supply and demand shocks, and as president of Texas Precious Metals, my time has been consumed by day-to-day operations. I finally have a bit of a respite this afternoon to share a few thoughts on the metals markets.

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Historic Bounce in Gold at Key Fibonacci Level

Given the extreme recent demand in the precious metals markets, this is the first opportunity I have had to reflect on the charts. For those interested in my thoughts on rising premiums and the cause for falling spot metal prices in early March, please refer to the articles linked.

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Why Are Precious Metals Prices Falling?

In response to my update yesterday – Demand Shock: The Forces Behind Rising Premiums – many of you sought to know an answer to the question: why are prices falling if demand is so unprecedented? I will seek to explain below. To clarify, yesterday I wrote about premiums; today I am writing about “spot price.”

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Liquidity Crisis Accelerates and Hits Metals Hard

The sell off in markets accelerated by coronavirus and the global reaction to curtail the pandemic has left no prisoners, as nearly all asset classes are selling off in a flight to liquidity. As large institutions face margin calls, they are forced to close positions or raise cash by selling anything and everything that is liquid. Gold and silver – the “safe haven” assets – are no exception. I would remind readers that in the global financial crisis gold fell 27% and silver fell 55% in nominal terms. Gold outperformed equities on a relative basis, but silver actually underperformed.

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Market Crash of 2020: Where Do We Go From Here?

Fear or Greed?

The last two weeks have been extremely volatile in the markets, and for the first time in a long time my friends and family have called to inquire about “what is going on in the markets?” Coronavirus contagion fears, coinciding with all-time highs in the markets, has been the scapegoat for a rapid, deflationary decline across nearly all markets except bonds, which resiliently continued to fetch a bid. Even the US Dollar, traditionally a safe haven in deflationary swoons, declined.

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$GC Mid-month Gold Update

Trend Remains Strong and Intact

Gold-Feb2

Price action in gold has traded in a narrow window over the past few weeks, winding into a tight coil as it begins to consolidate for another leg higher. The wave counts suggests that gold is in the early stages of a Wave 5. In the chart above, the key near term level to watch to the downside is $1540. This level served as resistance in September 2019, and has been support for the last month. This level also roughly coincides with rising support from the uptrend channel that commenced in August 2018.

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$GC Gold Ends January on a Monthly High

Gold Breaks Out; Silver Gearing Up for a Move

Gold Monthly

Gold bugs should be pleased with the monthly performance of gold in January. The definitive monthly break of the $1520 level, which had acted as strong monthly support six times between 2011-2013, before serving as resistance during this recent consolidation period between August and December, has sent a bullish longer term signal to the market.

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[VIDEO] US Housing Looking Very Bullish? – Jan 30th, 2020

Bullish Tailwinds in US Housing

In this video, I review key technicals in the US housing market, specifically the real estate ETF REZ, home construction ETF ITB, mortgage rates and lumber. I also explore some key demographic trends that could help fuel the rise in the US housing market.

As always, I hope this is helpful, and I welcome any feedback or questions.

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[VIDEO] Silver Update – Silver Testing Rising Channel Support – Jan 29, 2020

Silver Testing Key Level

In this video I take a look at the prevailing long and short term trends in the price of silver. While the decade-long trend remains down, the one year trend remains up. Yesterday’s .60 drop in price now has silver testing rising channel support from the bottom in May 2019. Bulls will want to see this price hold for another leg higher. If price breaks down from this rising support, the key levels are 16.90 and 16.20. Bulls especially need silver to remain above 16.20 for the longer term bullish picture to remain in play.

As always, I hope this is helpful, and I welcome any feedback or questions.
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[VIDEO] Market Update – Dr. Copper Looking Very Sick – Jan 27, 2020

Failed Breakout Disconcerting for Commodity Bulls

In early January I got very bullish copper as price was breaking out of a multi-year symmetrical triangle. The trade worked well initially, but price subsequently reversed and fell precipitously. In this video, I take a look at this price action, explain how I build a chart, and what the copper price means for the commodities sector.

As always, I hope this is helpful, and I welcome any feedback or questions.
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[VIDEO] Market Update – Gold, Oil, Equities, Bonds, and USD – Jan 08, 2020

Dollar Movement Will be Key in 2020

I made a brief video this evening to quickly run through some key charts I’m following and where I see the big picture trends.

Energy

In energy, I cover crude oil futures, $XOP and $XLE.

Precious Metals

In precious metals, I cover the charts of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures, as well as the S&P/Gold ratio. In mining stocks I review $GDX, the GDX/GDXJ ratio, Newmont Mining ($NEM) and Pan American Silver ($PAAS).

Currencies

For currencies, I stick to the US Dollar ($DXY), looking and both daily and long term monthly charts.

Fixed Income

In fixed income, I review the 20-year treasury ETF ($TLT), mortgage backed securities ($MBB), and high Yield corporate debt ($JNK)

Equities

In equities, I take a quick look at the S&P500 and and the micro caps ($RUMIC).
As always, I hope this is helpful, and I welcome any feedback or questions.
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Strong Move for Metals to Open 2020

Price Prepping for New 7-Yr Highs?

Happy New Year! We are kicking off the New Year with stocks at all-time highs, oil prices spiking on Middle East tensions, and the precious metals complex following through nicely for our November/December videos. If you haven’t had a chance to watch those videos, they offer a helpful background on the technical setup for metals and the price action we are seeing today.

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