Gold Price Resources

Gold, Silver, USD: Where to Next?

The precious metals market is very clearly in a secular uptrend and prices look poised for further significant upside into the end of the year. My technical view is that in the short term prices have gotten a bit extended and that a pull back/consolidation is due (and healthy) to build the base for the next leg higher.

Gold

As I stated in my last post from July 8th: “I have always viewed the $1800 price level in gold as more significant than the $1910 blow-off top in 2011. The price level at $1800 was the multi-month, triple tested resistance level that precipitated the six-year base. If price holds, the breakout above this level is secular and very bullish.”

This past week December gold futures eclipsed $2000 and the front month August contract peaked just shy of the 127.2 Fibonacci extension. When this level breaks and holds, my text target is $2260 at the 161.8 Fibonacci extension. However, with the 14-period RSI in extreme overbought conditions, eclipsing 86 for the highest on record, and with bullish sentiment frothing, the timing seems ripe for a pullback (even if just a modest one).

GOLD MONTHLY - JULY

For a more granular view, the August front month contract has been trading in this channel since February, and is also now approaching the upper bound. A logical place for a reentry to add to longs would be a small consolidation to rising support.

GOLD 4HR CHART

Silver

The level to watch in silver is $26 (the July high was 26.27). The $26 level was triple tested support in 2011-2012 and is now acting as resistance. This is also the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement from the peak in 2011 to the the 2015 low. The risk/reward favors a long position above $26 or on a retest of the $19.80 breakout level. Price could get choppy in between as the market digests the recent moves. When price breaks out above $26, the next key targets are $33 and $35 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement).

SILVER WEEKLY JULY

US Dollar

The US Dollar supports the metals thesis, acting as the inverse of metals price action. Big picture, in July, the US Dollar broke down from its 12-year rising channel (and diamond top pattern) and all technical indications look bearish.

DOLLAR MONTHLY-JULY

However, in the short term, price is likely to push back to at least 94.60 as the dollar works off extreme oversold conditions and historic bearishness to retest prior support.

USD 4HR

We are looking for further metals strength and dollar weakness as we head into the fall. As always, we welcome any feedback and comments.

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Big Breakouts Across Metals Complex: Gold, Silver, Miners

Precious metals prices broke out this morning above key resistance levels in the mining sector as well as the underlying futures market for the raw metal.

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Gold and Silver Coiling for a Move

It has been over a month since my last entry on the markets, and aside from a few Twitter posts, most of my analysis has been confined to my desktop. The impact of the coronavirus on the retail precious metals market has been historic, with dueling supply and demand shocks, and as president of Texas Precious Metals, my time has been consumed by day-to-day operations. I finally have a bit of a respite this afternoon to share a few thoughts on the metals markets.

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Historic Bounce in Gold at Key Fibonacci Level

Given the extreme recent demand in the precious metals markets, this is the first opportunity I have had to reflect on the charts. For those interested in my thoughts on rising premiums and the cause for falling spot metal prices in early March, please refer to the articles linked.

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Why Are Precious Metals Prices Falling?

In response to my update yesterday – Demand Shock: The Forces Behind Rising Premiums – many of you sought to know an answer to the question: why are prices falling if demand is so unprecedented? I will seek to explain below. To clarify, yesterday I wrote about premiums; today I am writing about “spot price.”

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Liquidity Crisis Accelerates and Hits Metals Hard

The sell off in markets accelerated by coronavirus and the global reaction to curtail the pandemic has left no prisoners, as nearly all asset classes are selling off in a flight to liquidity. As large institutions face margin calls, they are forced to close positions or raise cash by selling anything and everything that is liquid. Gold and silver – the “safe haven” assets – are no exception. I would remind readers that in the global financial crisis gold fell 27% and silver fell 55% in nominal terms. Gold outperformed equities on a relative basis, but silver actually underperformed.

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Market Crash of 2020: Where Do We Go From Here?

Fear or Greed?

The last two weeks have been extremely volatile in the markets, and for the first time in a long time my friends and family have called to inquire about “what is going on in the markets?” Coronavirus contagion fears, coinciding with all-time highs in the markets, has been the scapegoat for a rapid, deflationary decline across nearly all markets except bonds, which resiliently continued to fetch a bid. Even the US Dollar, traditionally a safe haven in deflationary swoons, declined.

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S&P500 to Gold Ratio at Important Level

Which Asset Class Will Outperform?

In advance of tomorrow’s Fed meeting and decision on interest rates, I am closely monitoring the S&P500 priced in gold. The S&P500 has broken out to all-time highs and has successfully retested the breakout, while gold has retreated ~$100 from its highs in August, either setting up a washout to a new near term bottom (possibly backtesting the entire breakout from $1380), or preparing for a rally to retest the $1580 level after a multi-month bull flag.

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[VIDEO] Gold and Silver Mining Stocks Price Update

Mining Stocks Leading Gold Higher?

I produced this video on the gold and silver mining sector last night, and as of this morning gold is up significantly and all of the mining stocks continue to follow through. Gold (see chart above) just broke above horizontal resistance and is now looking to break up from the August downtrend channel. A move above $1495 would resume the uptrend from 4Q18, where channel support recently held. As presented in early November, I continue to believe this is a Wave 4 of 5, and that we will retest the highs at $1560-$1580. A close above $1495 would confirm it.

In the video below, I cover price action in some key mining stocks as well as the gold:silver ratio and the S&P:gold ratio. If gold is going to make another push to $1560-$1580, we want to see miners lead the way. Thus far, they are showing strength, which is a positive sign for bulls.
Some of the stocks covered in this video:

$GDX $GDXJ $ABX $NEM $XME $WPM $GOLD.V

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