Gold Price Resources

Market Crash of 2020: Where Do We Go From Here?

Fear or Greed?

The last two weeks have been extremely volatile in the markets, and for the first time in a long time my friends and family have called to inquire about “what is going on in the markets?” Coronavirus contagion fears, coinciding with all-time highs in the markets, has been the scapegoat for a rapid, deflationary decline across nearly all markets except bonds, which resiliently continued to fetch a bid. Even the US Dollar, traditionally a safe haven in deflationary swoons, declined.

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$GC Mid-month Gold Update

Trend Remains Strong and Intact

Gold-Feb2

Price action in gold has traded in a narrow window over the past few weeks, winding into a tight coil as it begins to consolidate for another leg higher. The wave counts suggests that gold is in the early stages of a Wave 5. In the chart above, the key near term level to watch to the downside is $1540. This level served as resistance in September 2019, and has been support for the last month. This level also roughly coincides with rising support from the uptrend channel that commenced in August 2018.

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$GC Gold Ends January on a Monthly High

Gold Breaks Out; Silver Gearing Up for a Move

Gold Monthly

Gold bugs should be pleased with the monthly performance of gold in January. The definitive monthly break of the $1520 level, which had acted as strong monthly support six times between 2011-2013, before serving as resistance during this recent consolidation period between August and December, has sent a bullish longer term signal to the market.

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[VIDEO] Market Update – Gold, Oil, Equities, Bonds, and USD – Jan 08, 2020

Dollar Movement Will be Key in 2020

I made a brief video this evening to quickly run through some key charts I’m following and where I see the big picture trends.

Energy

In energy, I cover crude oil futures, $XOP and $XLE.

Precious Metals

In precious metals, I cover the charts of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures, as well as the S&P/Gold ratio. In mining stocks I review $GDX, the GDX/GDXJ ratio, Newmont Mining ($NEM) and Pan American Silver ($PAAS).

Currencies

For currencies, I stick to the US Dollar ($DXY), looking and both daily and long term monthly charts.

Fixed Income

In fixed income, I review the 20-year treasury ETF ($TLT), mortgage backed securities ($MBB), and high Yield corporate debt ($JNK)

Equities

In equities, I take a quick look at the S&P500 and and the micro caps ($RUMIC).
As always, I hope this is helpful, and I welcome any feedback or questions.
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Strong Move for Metals to Open 2020

Price Prepping for New 7-Yr Highs?

Happy New Year! We are kicking off the New Year with stocks at all-time highs, oil prices spiking on Middle East tensions, and the precious metals complex following through nicely for our November/December videos. If you haven’t had a chance to watch those videos, they offer a helpful background on the technical setup for metals and the price action we are seeing today.

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S&P500 to Gold Ratio at Important Level

Which Asset Class Will Outperform?

In advance of tomorrow’s Fed meeting and decision on interest rates, I am closely monitoring the S&P500 priced in gold. The S&P500 has broken out to all-time highs and has successfully retested the breakout, while gold has retreated ~$100 from its highs in August, either setting up a washout to a new near term bottom (possibly backtesting the entire breakout from $1380), or preparing for a rally to retest the $1580 level after a multi-month bull flag.

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[VIDEO] Gold and Silver Mining Stocks Price Update

Mining Stocks Leading Gold Higher?

I produced this video on the gold and silver mining sector last night, and as of this morning gold is up significantly and all of the mining stocks continue to follow through. Gold (see chart above) just broke above horizontal resistance and is now looking to break up from the August downtrend channel. A move above $1495 would resume the uptrend from 4Q18, where channel support recently held. As presented in early November, I continue to believe this is a Wave 4 of 5, and that we will retest the highs at $1560-$1580. A close above $1495 would confirm it.

In the video below, I cover price action in some key mining stocks as well as the gold:silver ratio and the S&P:gold ratio. If gold is going to make another push to $1560-$1580, we want to see miners lead the way. Thus far, they are showing strength, which is a positive sign for bulls.
Some of the stocks covered in this video:

$GDX $GDXJ $ABX $NEM $XME $WPM $GOLD.V

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[VIDEO] Gold Price Update, Nov 15, 2019

Gold Price – Breakdown, or Another Leg Higher?

Picking up from last week’s video, I wanted to do a deep dive into gold, particularly because there is a diversity of opinions regarding whether we break down from here or we make another leg higher. In this video, I address a recent chart from JC Parets at All Star Charts and my opinion regarding his analysis in the short term.

The big question is whether gold has completed a fifth wave from the $1170 low (setting up and A-B-C correction), or whether the recent high was only wave 3, setting up a fifth wave higher. I am of the latter opinion.

As always, we would love to hear your feedback whether you agree or disagree.

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[VIDEO] Precious Metals Price Update, Nov 08, 2019

Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, and Copper

In this week’s video I take a look at the charts of gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and copper and offer some thoughts on where I see prices moving next. In the case of gold, which has enjoyed a fantastic run-up from $1180 to $1570 this year (in the process breaking out of a six year base), price is pulling back and bull flagging at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Does it make a push down to $1400 to backtest the entire move? Will silver find support at $16.60 or are we moving lower? Will palladium continue its historic march hire, or will it meet resistance at future levels?

I discuss all this and more in today’s ten minute video. As always, whether you agree or disagree with my analysis, I would love to hear your feedback.

 

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$GC Gold Looking To Break Out of Bull Flag

RSI Turning Higher

The run-up in gold this morning has price action testing the downtrend line from the September high for the fourth time. Gold has been forming a bull flag for the past eight weeks, and $1505 also coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the September high to the October low. Bulls want to see a breakout here; a failure would likely weigh heavily on price and take gold to new multi-month lows at downtrend support. RSI is supporting bullish action and is breaking out of its multi-week downtrend. The bond market is also acting bullishly after cooling off recently, as highlighted in my analysis of TLT, which is also supportive of higher gold prices. (more…)

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Oil/Gold Ratio At Key Support

Oil Gold Ratio

Ratio Poised to Break to the Upside?

I have focused much of my time on the gold market recently because of the significance of the May breakout above $1365/oz, which had acted as key resistance for six years, and what the breakout is communicating about the forward trajectory of global markets. Gold is a risk-off asset; a flight to safety. Its tight correlation recently to the bond market reinforces how investors have been positioning away from risk assets. (more…)

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Gold and Bonds Highly Correlated

Flight to safety

Since 2015, the gold market and bond market (I use the $TLT 20-Year Bond ETF as a proxy for bond market performance) has been highly correlated. Both asset classes are viewed as a risk-off flight to safety. While past performance does not predict future performance, it is worth noting that many are viewing the bond market as a “bubble,” while simultaneously extolling the opinion that gold has entered a long-term secular bull market. I am personally allowing for the possibility that both have much higher long term upside, particularly when considering that US bonds offer the highest yields in the world. The best yielding sovereign bonds should continue to fetch a global bid. (more…)

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